Lessons

Little's Law and WIP Limits

Level: Intermediate Module: Kanban for Scrum Teams 3 min read Lesson 35 of 52

Overview

  • What you’ll learn: Little’s Law and its implications for software teams, how to calculate and set WIP limits, the psychology of multitasking, and practical strategies for enforcing WIP limits.
  • Prerequisites: Lesson 34 — Flow Metrics.
  • Estimated reading time: 15 minutes

Introduction

In 1961, John Little proved a theorem that would eventually revolutionize how we think about workflow: Average Cycle Time = Average WIP ÷ Average Throughput. This elegant equation, known as Little’s Law, mathematically proves what intuition suggests: the more things you work on simultaneously, the longer each thing takes.

Little’s Law Explained

The formula: CT = WIP / TH

Where CT is average Cycle Time, WIP is average Work in Progress, and TH is average Throughput.

Example: If your team has 15 items in progress (WIP = 15) and finishes 5 items per week (TH = 5), then the average cycle time is 15 / 5 = 3 weeks. If you reduce WIP to 10, cycle time drops to 2 weeks — with the same team doing the same work.

This is not magic. When you have fewer items in progress, context switching decreases, focus increases, blockers get resolved faster (because there are fewer alternatives to hide behind), and items flow through the system more quickly.

The Multitasking Tax

Research by Gerald Weinberg suggests that with every additional project a person juggles, they lose approximately 20% of their productive capacity to context switching. With two projects, you are at 80% efficiency. With three, 60%. With five, you are spending more time switching than working.

WIP limits are not about working less — they are about losing less to waste.

How to Set WIP Limits

There is no universally correct WIP limit. Start with a simple heuristic:

  1. Per-person WIP = 1 or 2. One primary item, one secondary (for when the first is blocked).
  2. Per-column WIP = team size or slightly less. If you have 5 developers, try a WIP limit of 4 or 5 for the “In Development” column.
  3. System WIP = slightly higher than comfortable. Start conservative and observe. If the team feels idle, raise it slightly. If items are aging, lower it.

The goal is not to find the “perfect” WIP limit. The goal is to use WIP limits as a catalyst for conversation. When a limit is about to be exceeded, the team must discuss: Should we help finish something first? Is something blocked? Should we raise the limit?

Enforcing WIP Limits

WIP limits are agreements, not suggestions. When a column is at its limit:

  • Option 1: Help finish an existing item (pair, swarm, remove blockers).
  • Option 2: Wait until an item moves to the next column.
  • Option 3: Discuss whether the limit should be temporarily or permanently adjusted.

What you should never do is silently ignore the limit. That makes WIP limits decorative, not functional.

Key Takeaways

  • Little’s Law: CT = WIP / TH. Less WIP = shorter cycle time.
  • Multitasking imposes a 20% tax per additional project.
  • Start with WIP = 1–2 per person, adjust based on data.
  • WIP limits are catalysts for conversation, not rigid rules.
  • Never silently ignore a WIP limit.
本課中文版

概述

1961 年,John Little 證明了一個定理:平均週期時間 = 平均 WIP ÷ 平均產出量。這個優雅的公式數學上證明了直覺所暗示的:你同時做的事情越多,每件事就越慢完成。

Little’s Law 解釋

公式:CT = WIP / TH

範例:如果你的團隊有 15 個進行中的項目(WIP = 15),每週完成 5 個(TH = 5),那平均週期時間是 15 / 5 = 3 週。如果把 WIP 降到 10,週期時間降到 2 週——同一個團隊做同樣的工作。

多工切換的代價

Gerald Weinberg 的研究指出,每多一個同時進行的專案,就會因為上下文切換而損失約 20% 的生產力。做兩個專案,效率只剩 80%。做三個,60%。做五個,你花在切換上的時間比工作還多。

如何設定 WIP 限制

  1. 每人 WIP = 1 或 2。一個主要項目,一個次要(用於主要被阻擋時)。
  2. 每欄 WIP = 團隊人數或稍少。5 個開發者,試試 4 或 5 的限制。
  3. 系統 WIP = 比舒適區稍高。保守開始,觀察調整。

目標不是找到「完美的」WIP 限制,而是用 WIP 限制作為對話的催化劑。

重點整理

  • Little’s Law:CT = WIP / TH。更少 WIP = 更短週期時間。
  • 多工切換每多一個專案損失 20% 生產力。
  • 從每人 WIP = 1-2 開始,根據數據調整。
  • 永遠不要默默忽略 WIP 限制。
日本語版

概要

1961年、ジョン・リトルはある定理を証明した:平均サイクルタイム = 平均WIP ÷ 平均スループット。このエレガントな方程式は、同時に取り組むことが多いほど、それぞれにかかる時間が長くなることを数学的に証明している。

リトルの法則

公式:CT = WIP / TH

例:チームが15個の作業を進行中(WIP = 15)で、週5個完了(TH = 5)なら、平均サイクルタイムは15 / 5 = 3週間。WIPを10に減らせば、サイクルタイムは2週間に短縮される。

マルチタスクの税金

ジェラルド・ワインバーグの研究によると、同時進行プロジェクトが1つ増えるごとに、コンテキストスイッチングにより約20%の生産性が失われる。

WIP制限の設定方法

  1. 一人あたりWIP = 1〜2。
  2. 列ごとのWIP = チームサイズまたはやや少なめ。
  3. システムWIP = 快適な範囲より少し高め。保守的に始めて観察する。

重要ポイント

  • リトルの法則:CT = WIP / TH。WIPを減らせばサイクルタイムが短縮。
  • マルチタスクはプロジェクト追加ごとに20%の税金。
  • 一人あたりWIP = 1〜2から始め、データに基づいて調整。
  • WIP制限を黙って無視してはならない。

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